Here’s the list:
Number of times a state has been a swing state (within 3 percentage points) in the last 8 elections.
- Nevada – 5
- Florida – 5
- North Carolina – 4
- New Hampshire – 4
- Pennsylvania – 4
- Wisconsin – 4
- Arizona – 3
- Montana – 3
- Ohio – 3
- Georgia – 3
- Michigan – 2
- Minnesota – 2
- New Mexico – 2
- Iowa – 2
- Maine – 1
- Missouri – 1
- New Jersey – 1
- Colorado – 1
- Oregon – 1
- Tennessee – 1
- Virginia – 1
- Washington – 1
- Illinois – 1
- Indiana – 1
- Kentucky – 1
- Maryland – 1
2020 Election
In 2020, 7 of those states would were within 3 percentage points, although interestingly not Florida.
- Arizona: Biden
- Georgia: Biden
- Michigan: Biden
- Nevada: Biden
- North Carolina: Trump
- Pennsylvania: Biden
- Wisconsin: Biden
How Many States Swing In Each Election Since 1992
- 1992: 22
- 1996: 5
- 2000: 11
- 2004: 3
- 2008: 9
- 2012: 2
- 2016: 6
- 2020: 5
Map of Non-Swing States
Since the 1988 election, 20 states and Washington, DC have voted for the same party in every presidential election. They are:
- Alabama – Republican
- Alaska – Republican
- District of Columbia – Democrat
- Hawaii – Democrat
- Idaho – Republican
- Kansas – Republican
- Massachusetts – Democrat
- Minnesota – Democrat
- Mississippi – Republican
- Nebraska – Republican
- New York – Democrat
- North Dakota – Republican
- Oklahoma – Republican
- Oregon – Democrat
- Rhode Island – Democrat
- South Carolina – Republican
- South Dakota – Republican
- Texas – Republican
- Utah – Republican
- Washington – Democrat
- Wyoming – Republican
Interestingly, California is not on that list only because it voted Republican in 1988, since then it’s been Democratic.
More on the background of swing states and the different way they can be defined:
Swing states, also known as “battleground states” or “purple states,” are states in the United States where both major political parties—Democrats and Republicans—have similar levels of support among voters.
These states are crucial in presidential elections because their outcomes are not easily predictable and can “swing” to either party.
The definition and identification of swing states can vary based on several factors:
1. Historical Voting Patterns
States that have shown a tendency to switch their support between Democrats and Republicans in recent elections are often considered swing states. If a state voted for a Democrat in one election and a Republican in the next, or vice versa, it may be labeled a swing state.
2. Polling Margins
Swing states are often identified by analyzing polling data. States where polls show a close race, with neither party consistently leading by a significant margin, are typically considered swing states. A state with polling margins within a certain range (e.g., within 5% or 3% in the maps above) is often seen as a battleground.
3. Margin of Victory in Previous Elections
Analysts look at the margin of victory in previous presidential elections. States where the margin of victory was narrow (e.g., less than 5% difference between candidates or 3%) in recent elections are often categorized as swing states.
4. Demographic Shifts
Changes in demographic patterns, such as shifts in population, increases in voter registration among key groups (e.g., minorities, young voters), or changes in urban vs. rural population distribution, can turn a previously safe state into a swing state.
States undergoing significant demographic changes may be more unpredictable and therefore classified as swing states.
5. Electoral Votes and Strategic Importance
Some states, despite having relatively stable voting patterns, are considered swing states due to their high number of electoral votes.
For example, states like Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio are often labeled swing states because they have a large number of electoral votes, and their outcomes can significantly impact the overall result of a presidential election.
6. State-Level Issues and Local Campaigns
Specific state-level issues, such as economic conditions, health care, and immigration policies, can affect voter behavior and make a state a swing state.
Additionally, how local campaigns are run, the presence of popular local candidates, and state-specific dynamics can influence a state’s swing status.
7. Voter Registration Trends and Turnout Models
Trends in voter registration (e.g., increases in registered voters for a particular party) and turnout models (which groups are more likely to vote) can be used to predict whether a state is a swing state.
States with large numbers of independent or undecided voters, or where turnout is highly variable, can be more competitive.
8. Expert Analysis and Predictive Models
Political analysts, such as those from FiveThirtyEight, The Cook Political Report, and The New York Times, use complex predictive models that combine historical data, current polling, and demographic trends to label swing states. These models can vary based on the analysts’ methodologies and the data they prioritize.
9. Media and Public Perception
Sometimes, a state’s status as a swing state is reinforced by media coverage and public perception. If a state is frequently described as a battleground in news reports and political commentary, it can influence how campaigns allocate resources and shape the narrative of an election cycle.
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