European Independence & Unification Movements

Map created by reddit user bezzlefordThe map above shows 5 different unification movements in Europe and their respective level of support in around 2017 (see the map below for the Independence movements).

They are:

1. United Ireland (Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland)

• Population:
  • Republic of Ireland: ~5.1 million (2023 estimate)
  • Northern Ireland: ~1.9 million (2021 census)
  • Combined: ~7 million
• Recent Polling:
  • Republic of Ireland: Support at 46% (from map)
  • Northern Ireland: Support at 38% (from map); other polls suggest a range from 30%-40%, with higher support among younger demographics.
• Obstacles:
  • Political division: Unionist communities in Northern Ireland strongly oppose unification.
  • Economic integration: Questions about the financial impact on both regions.
  • Constitutional barriers: Requires referenda in both jurisdictions under the Good Friday Agreement.

More about a United Ireland

2. Greater Netherlands (Netherlands and Flanders, Belgium)

• Population:
  • Netherlands: ~17.8 million (2023)
  • Flanders: ~6.7 million (2023 estimate)
  • Combined: ~24.5 million
• Recent Polling:
  • Netherlands: Support at 72% (from map)
  • Flanders: Support at 26% (from map); limited interest among Flemish people despite cultural and linguistic similarities.
• Obstacles:
  • Low support in Flanders: Many Flemish nationalists prefer independence from Belgium over unification with the Netherlands.
  • EU dynamics: Such a unification would require renegotiation of treaties and borders.
  • Economic disparities: Concerns about wealth distribution and governance.

More about Greater Netherlands 

3. Rattachism (France and Wallonia, Belgium)

• Population:
  • France: ~67.8 million (2023)
  • Wallonia: ~3.7 million (2023 estimate)
  • Combined: ~71.5 million
• Recent Polling:
  • France: Support at 58% (from map)
  • Wallonia: Support at 35% (from map); interest in unification is often linked to dissatisfaction with Belgium’s federal structure.
• Obstacles:
  • Political identity: Many Walloons value their Belgian identity and prefer reforms within Belgium rather than unification with France.
  • Economic integration: Wallonia’s struggling economy may be a burden on France.
  • International politics: Belgium’s dissolution would involve complex negotiations.

More about Rattachism

4. Albania-Kosovo

• Population:
  • Albania: ~2.8 million (2023 estimate)
  • Kosovo: ~1.8 million (2023 estimate)
  • Combined: ~4.6 million
• Recent Polling:
  • Albania: Support at 68% (from map); other surveys suggest support fluctuates between 60%-80%.
  • Kosovo: Support at 75% (from map); support is consistently high due to shared ethnic Albanian identity.
• Obstacles:
  • International recognition: Kosovo’s independence is not universally recognized, complicating unification efforts.
  • Regional stability: Opposition from Serbia and other neighboring countries.
  • Economic and political challenges: Harmonizing political systems and economies.
  • EU and NATO considerations: Both entities would need to align their foreign policies.

More about the Unification of Albania and Kosovo

5. Romania-Moldova

• Population:
  • Romania: ~19 million (2023)
  • Moldova: ~2.6 million (2023 estimate, excluding Transnistria)
  • Combined: ~21.6 million
• Recent Polling:
  • • Romania: Support at 77% (from map); other polls show consistent strong support, although this has dropped considerably since the invasion of Ukraine.
  • Moldova: Support at 24% (from map); low support stems from political and ethnic diversity.
• Obstacles:
  • Political opposition: Many Moldovans fear losing sovereignty and cultural identity.
  • Economic disparities: Moldova is significantly less developed than Romania.
  • Geopolitical tensions: Russia’s influence in Moldova and the Transnistrian conflict are significant hurdles.

More about Unification of Moldova and Romania

Independence movements in Europe

Credit Maven Mapping & The World In MapsMore about them:

Northern Ireland

• Population: ~1.93 million
• Polling: Around 5% support Northern Ireland becoming an independent state. By comparison, roughly 36% would vote for Irish reunification.
• Main obstacles:
  • Very little mainstream support for an independent Northern Ireland.
  • Nationalists overwhelmingly favour reunification with Ireland instead.
  • Major questions over public finances, security and relations with Britain and Ireland.
  • A United Ireland already has a constitutional route through the Good Friday Agreement, whereas Northern Irish independence does not.

More about Ulster nationalism

Scotland

• Population: ~5.55 million
• Polling: Recent polling has generally placed independence close to 50%, with an August 2026 Survation poll giving roughly 52% Yes / 48% No among decided voters.
• Main obstacles:
  • Westminster would almost certainly have to approve another legal referendum.
  • The UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot hold one unilaterally.
  • Disputes over which currency an independent Scotland would use.
  • Scotland’s fiscal deficit and public spending.
  • Trade with the rest of the UK.
  • Terms and timing of possible EU membership.

More about Scottish independence

Wales

• Population: ~3.18 million
• Polling: Around 32% support independence, compared with 68% opposed among decided voters in an August 2026 poll.
• Main obstacles:
  • Independence remains well short of majority support.
  • Wales has no unilateral legal route to secession.
  • Concerns about the Welsh government’s fiscal position.
  • Heavy economic integration with England.
  • Questions surrounding currency, pensions, borders and trade.
  • Economic concerns consistently rank among the biggest reasons voters oppose independence.

More about Welsh independence

Galicia

• Population: ~2.72 million
• Polling: One of the clearest surveys found only around 7% supporting outright independence, although another 23% favoured greater autonomy.
• Main obstacles:
  • Independence has relatively little public support.
  • Many Galician nationalists favour stronger autonomy rather than separation.
  • Spain’s constitution describes the Spanish nation as indivisible.
  • Galicia is economically and institutionally deeply integrated with Spain.
  • Support for nationalist parties such as the BNG should not automatically be interpreted as support for independence.

More about the Galician independence movement

Brittany

• Population: ~3.51 million in administrative Brittany, or roughly 5.0 million if Loire-Atlantique is included in historical Brittany.
• Polling: The last major direct poll found about 18% supporting independence. Much larger numbers favour increased regional autonomy.
• Main obstacles:
  • Independence remains a minority position.
  • France is constitutionally an “indivisible Republic”.
  • Many Breton regionalists prioritise greater autonomy rather than independence.
  • Disagreement exists over whether Loire-Atlantique and Nantes should be included.
  • Breton language and identity have weakened considerably compared with previous centuries.

More about Breton nationalism

Basque Country

• Population: ~2.22 million in Spain’s Basque Autonomous Community.
• Polling: Around 21% firmly favour independence, 41% oppose it and approximately 33% say their position depends on circumstances.
• Main obstacles:
  • There is currently no clear majority for independence.
  • Spain’s constitution prevents unilateral secession.
  • The Basque Country already enjoys extensive fiscal and political autonomy.
  • The wider Basque homeland also includes Navarre and parts of France.
  • Opinion differs considerably between these territories.

More about Basque independence

Catalonia

• Population: ~8.2 million
• Polling: Recent polling has independence at roughly 45% Yes versus 50-51% No.
• Main obstacles:
  • Independence currently lacks majority support.
  • Spain’s constitution declares the country indivisible.
  • The 2017 unilateral referendum was ruled unconstitutional.
  • Divisions remain between Catalan separatist parties over strategy.
  • Questions over EU membership, currency and government debt.
  • Catalonia has extensive economic ties with the rest of Spain.

More about the Catalan independence movement

Flanders

• Population: ~6.9 million
• Polling: Figures vary enormously depending on wording. Some polls have suggested as much as 40% support independence, while conventional academic polling has often found only around 5-15% favouring outright separation.
• Main obstacles:
  • Many Flemish nationalists prefer confederalism rather than full independence.
  • The future of Brussels would be extraordinarily difficult to resolve.
  • Brussels is geographically surrounded by Flanders but predominantly French-speaking.
  • Belgium’s national debt, pensions and social-security system would have to be divided.
  • Belgium’s federal political system already gives Flanders considerable autonomy.

More about Flemish movement

Bavaria

• Population: ~13.25 million
• Polling: A widely cited 2017 poll found around 32% supporting Bavarian independence, although good recent polling is lacking.
• Main obstacles:
  • Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court has explicitly ruled that German states cannot unilaterally secede.
  • Separatist parties attract little electoral support.
  • Bavarian identity is strong, but this does not necessarily translate into separatism.
  • Germany’s economic and political integration makes separation difficult.
  • Independence is not a major issue for the dominant CSU.

More about Bavarian nationalism

South Tyrol

• Population: ~542,000
• Polling: A 2013 survey found 54% support for independence among German- and Ladin-speakers, although Italian speakers were excluded. Overall support was estimated closer to the mid-40% range.
• Main obstacles:
  • South Tyrol already enjoys very extensive autonomy.
  • German-, Ladin- and Italian-speaking residents have different political preferences.
  • Separatists disagree over whether South Tyrol should become independent or rejoin Austria.
  • Italy’s constitution protects the unity of the Italian state.
  • Any territorial change would involve both Italy and Austria.

More about the South Tyrolean independence movement

Corsica

• Population: ~366,000
• Polling: Support for autonomy is extremely high,  around three-quarters of the population, but outright independence attracts much less support, probably below 20%.
• Main obstacles:
  • Most Corsican nationalists currently prioritise autonomy rather than independence.
  • France is constitutionally an indivisible republic.
  • Corsica depends heavily on economic transfers from mainland France.
  • An independent island would face questions over currency, EU membership and public finances.
  • The French government has shown greater willingness to discuss autonomy than independence.

More about Corsican nationalism

Sicily

• Population: ~4.79 million
• Polling: A 2014 survey produced a surprisingly high figure of around 44% supporting independence, although there is little reliable recent polling confirming that level today.
• Main obstacles:
  • Modern Sicilian separatist parties have very little electoral influence.
  • Sicily already has special autonomous status.
  • Italy’s constitution defines the Republic as “one and indivisible”.
  • Sicily receives substantial fiscal transfers from the Italian state.
  • Economic viability and public finances would be major referendum issues.

More about Sicilian nationalism

Republika Srpska

• Population: ~1.11 million
• Polling: One of the most recent clear surveys found around 41% supporting independence and 33% opposed.
• Main obstacles:
  • Republika Srpska is legally an entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina, not a sovereign state.
  • The Dayton Peace Agreement provides no right of unilateral secession.
  • Most of the international community strongly opposes independence.
  • The status of strategically important Brčko District would be particularly difficult.
  • Serbia itself has generally stopped short of supporting formal secession.
  • A unilateral declaration could destabilise Bosnia and potentially reignite ethnic tensions.

More about the Proposed secession of Republika Srpska

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