The map above looks at the Odds Trump will mention a country or US State in his State of The Union Address. The data comes from prediction market sites Polymarket and Kalshi.
Here’s the full list of locations with the odds as of Feb 23rd (odds may have since changed):
| Location | Polymarket (%) | Kalshi (%) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 97% | 97% | -- |
| Venezuela | 93% | 95% | 2% |
| Iran | 95% | 94% | -1% |
| Russia | 88% | 88% | -- |
| Ukraine | 87% | 86% | -1% |
| Mexico | 86% | 85% | -1% |
| Canada | 81% | 80% | -1% |
| India | 71% | 70% | -1% |
| New York | 69% | 67% | -2% |
| Japan | 66% | 68% | 2% |
| California | 66% | 64% | -2% |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | 64% | 64% | -- |
| Greenland | 62% | 63% | 1% |
| Congo | 56% | 56% | -- |
| Chicago | 52% | 53% | 1% |
| Gulf of America | 51% | 55% | 4% |
| Cuba | 51% | 53% | 2% |
| Taiwan | 46% | 45% | -1% |
| Memphis | 44% | 41% | -3% |
| Somalia | 36% | 38% | 2% |
| Arizona | 35% | 35% | -- |
| Colombia | 26% | 28% | 2% |
| Mount McKinley | 27% | 26% | -1% |
| El Salvador | 19% | 21% | 2% |
| Portland | 18% | 17% | -1% |
| Europe / European | 88% | - | - |
| Washington DC / DC | 80% | - | - |
| White House | 59% | - | - |
| Afghanistan | 55% | - | - |
| Los Angeles | 52% | - | - |
| Texas | 51% | - | - |
| Pennsylvania | 50% | - | - |
| New Orleans | 48% | - | - |
| Western Hemisphere | 43% | - | - |
| Georgia | 42% | - | - |
| Norway | 40% | - | - |
| North Carolina | 38% | - | - |
| Michigan | 37% | - | - |
| Switzerland | 31% | - | - |
| South America / Latin America | 31% | - | - |
| Nigeria | 29% | - | - |
| Syria | 25% | - | - |
| Ethiopia | 19% | - | - |
| Israel | - | 83% | - |
| Gaza | - | 76% | - |
| Korea | - | 60% | - |
| Saudi Arabia | - | 53% | - |
| Alaska | - | 48% | - |
| Panama | 46% | - | - |
| Florida | - | 34% | - |
| Kennedy Center | - | 34% | - |
| Detroit | - | 32% | - |
| Argentina | - | 23% | - |
| Palestine | - | 14% | - |
| Iceland | - | 8% | - |
| Little Saint James (aka Epstein Island) | - | 3% | - |
Here are some of my thoughts below:
What do you think?
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