Amish Vs Mormon Projected Population Share By County In 2100

Map found on redditThe map above shows the share of each US counties population that may be either Mormon on Amish in 2100. The data seems to be based on population projections, that I’m not entirely clear on.

For example, according to the Washington Post: “1.8 percent of American adults identified as Mormon in 2007. In 15 years, that total dropped to 1.2 percent. In raw terms, that’s a net loss of roughly 1 million adult members.”

On the other hand, according to the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (the Mormon Church) there are estimated, to be just under 7 million Mormons living in the United States. Mormons also have more children than non-Mormons (2.8 children per household vs 2.06 children per household in the US as whole).

Moreover, the US Census estimates that the total US population in 2100 will be around 366 million. Which means if Mormons remain at 1.2% of the population there would actually be fewer than today (4.4 million).

So it’s possible they actually increase their share of the US population, if they keep having more children than other groups and their children stay in the Church.

The Amish numbers are even more interesting: “The Amish population in the U.S. numbers more than 370,000 and is growing rapidly (around 3% per year), due to large family size (seven children on average) and a church-member retention rate of approximately 80%.”

If they can maintain their growth rate, there would be around 3.5 million Amish in the US in 2100, making them just under 1.0% of the population.

So while the map above is somewhat questionable (as are almost all projections 75 years out), it’s not totally impossible.

What’s the difference between Mormons and the Amish?

The Mormons and the Amish are both religious groups with distinct beliefs, practices, and cultural norms. Here’s a breakdown of the key differences between them:

1. Origins and Founding:

• Mormons (The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints):
  • Founded in the early 19th century (1830) in the United States by Joseph Smith.
  • The movement claims that Joseph Smith received revelations from God, including the Book of Mormon, which they consider another testament of Jesus Christ alongside the Bible.
• Amish:
  • Originated in the late 17th century (1693) in Europe, as a result of a schism within the Anabaptist movement, led by Jakob Ammann.
  • The Amish came to the United States mainly in the 18th century, seeking religious freedom.
  • Their practices are deeply rooted in Anabaptist traditions and beliefs.

2. Core Beliefs:

• Mormons:
  • Believe in the Bible and the Book of Mormon as sacred texts.
  • Follow additional scriptures like the Doctrine and Covenants and the Pearl of Great Price.
  • Believe in living prophets, ongoing revelation, and a structured priesthood.
  • Emphasize family, missionary work, and a belief in the potential for eternal progression and life after death.
• Amish:
  • Emphasize simplicity, humility, and separation from the world.
  • Hold the Bible as their primary religious text, particularly the New Testament.
  • Focus on a communal lifestyle, rejecting modern conveniences and technology to maintain separation from the secular world.
  • Their beliefs are expressed in the Ordnung, a set of unwritten rules governing all aspects of Amish life.

3. Lifestyle and Practices:

• Mormons:
  • Live in the modern world and generally embrace technology, education, and professional careers.
  • Family life is central, and they have a strong community network, including church services, social events, and humanitarian efforts.
  • Participate in missionary work, often serving two-year missions around the world.
  • They have temples where sacred ordinances are performed, and regular worship services are held in meetinghouses.
• Amish:
  • Live a simple, rural lifestyle, often in farming communities.
  • Avoid most modern technology, including electricity, cars, and telephones, to preserve their way of life.
  • Dress plainly, with distinctive clothing that reflects their commitment to humility and separation from the world.
  • Education is limited to elementary level, typically conducted in one-room schoolhouses.
  • Their communities are close-knit, with strong emphasis on mutual aid and manual labor.

4. Social and Cultural Practices:

• Mormons:
  • Engaged in broader society, often involved in business, politics, and other public spheres.
  • Value education, and many pursue higher education and professional careers.
  • Hold weekly worship services, including sacrament meetings, Sunday School, and other religious classes.
• Amish:
  • Isolate themselves from broader society to maintain religious purity and community integrity.
  • Shun higher education and formal employment outside their community.
  • Their worship services are held in homes or barns, not in church buildings, and are conducted in Pennsylvania Dutch or High German.
  • Use the process of shunning to discipline members who violate community rules.

5. Community Structure:

• Mormons:
  • Organized into wards and stakes, which are local congregations and regional groupings.
  • Leadership includes a Prophet, Apostles, and local leaders called bishops.
• Amish:
  • Organized into small, autonomous church districts, each led by a bishop, ministers, and deacons.
  • The community is central, and decisions are made communally according to the Ordnung.

In summary, while both groups are Christian and have strong community and religious values, their beliefs, practices, and ways of interacting with the world are vastly different. Mormons are more integrated into modern society, with a focus on missionary work and spiritual growth, while the Amish emphasize simplicity, humility, and separation from modern society to maintain their religious values.

Distance To The Nearest Mormon Church In The US Between 1877 & 2021

Amish Population By County In 2025

Map made by reddit user Crafty-Company-2906, Dicord user Donluca
They provide a super interesting backstory on the map and the Amish in general:

I had this map in the oven for a while, forgot about it, now I post it here for you to enjoy.

A brief Amish crash course then I get into the nitty gritty.

The Amish are generally often romanticized for their traditional lifestyle, wich often consists (not always) of no electricity, no modern Technologys for the most part (not always) they’re generally seen as farmer’s and live in segregated (this can vary in degree of separation) colony’s, a colony is a or a cluster of villages were they and only they live.

They are a German speaking people with their language being a mix of “swiss german” and “pälzisch” Basically German for the non Germans here

They are christian, but in the 1400s Martin Luther King? No, no just Martin-Luther, in the reformation were he wanted to reform Christianity, but actually led to the splintering of Christianity like a piece of glass, and the Mennonites (another interesting group) thought martinuther hasn’t gone far enough in his reform’s, so they did go far enough themselves.

A core beliefs of theirs is the separation of Church and state, didn’t sit well with the church and state at the time as you can imagine, and they didn’t like inftant baptism, so they made it adult’s only because they believed you should understand what this means. And the Amish came along when jakkop aman didn’t like how much the Mennonites integrated into the local culture in Alsace Lorraine, so he and other’s created a different sects wich seperates more from the local society, and they were called the Amish after him.

Long story short: the were persecuted for long until they went to Pennsylvania in america were they were guaranteed religious freedom’s, and they settled in Lancaster county and soon after in Holmes county Ohio, estimates range from as few as 500 individuals who settled in America to a somewhat better 2.500 wich still isn’t allot, and they had allot of problems at first, and this lead to many leaving the Amish and joining local Mennonites and marriage’s between the Irish and Amish, 5% of their DNA is Irish from these first decades, but at the start of the 1900s they finally stabilized.

In the year 1900 there were 5.000 Amish in the us, today 2025 it’s well over 400.000, and they also first began to get attention in the 1920s as they didn’t change much with the times.

You can generally say their population doubles every 20 year’s, with a more conservative sub group doubling every 12-16 year’s.

They atleast today are employed in many different fields, such as RV factory’s in Indiana and Illinois, craftsmanship, construction, farming, restaurants, tourism, and they sometimes create verry successful businesses, some have dozends and hundred’s of employee’s, so they are generally very adaptable if farming koesn’t work for them they find something else.

They’re fertility rate (number of children a woman has over her fertile years) is pretty high and has remained remarkably stable, at about 7 for Amish in general and 9-10 for the more conservative sub group’s, and retention rate is verry high from 80-95% of children remain within the community, the more traditional a community the more remain, this has led to them growing so quickly. I get later into detail why they remain in the group often.

An interesting fact is that they are exempt from paying into social security because they don’t take it, and neither insurance, if a community member has a medical emergency the family and community and if that’s not enough neighboring communitys chip all in to pay for everything, it’s a nice system you help someone and no risk of failure if you need help too you will get it, that’s something verry nice about them they essentially have free healthcare just without the taxes as middlemen, and for pensions, usually the child that inherits the farm takes care of them but other siblings help also often, for disabled people it’s the same community or Family will take care of that, they’re also very active in disaster release, for example with the earth quake in HAITI or the hurricanes that sometimes sweep the southern us, they often help indirectly with money and awareness.

They’re also very good builders, when tornados sweep through the Midwest and their farms are destroyed the farms are often rebuild faster than the government can asses the damage, no that really happens, it depends on the region and type of Amish but they’re generally very handy people and self sufficient in many ways.

They have their own shools in their communitys were they teach usually up to the 8th grade then they stop, it’s for religious and practical reasons, I leave it to the reader to decide if that’s wrong right or something in-between.

They don’t have churches in the normal way as a side effect of the persecutions they hold their prayer’s in basement’s or barns, they take turns every family hosts the entire community and pray etc on their property.

They are economically very productive for the region they inhabit, they produce food wich is only sold locally and if they need to buy something they also buy it locally, they’re in productive hard working and that makes them good for the local economy, especially they’re stores and businesses if they employe locals, they aren’t that Business oriented as the Mennonites but they have their fair share of millionaires, though it’s almost never made public as they don’t like bragging, and live verry plain and modest lives.

They’re clothing is usually dictated by the local community, they elect someone as deecan moinister and Bishop, and through processes and votes and what not and etc they decide the local “Ordnung” basically the rules for clothing behavior and what not, thts’s why they’re so diverse every community can have different rules some more open others more closed off, their food is also plain but often tasty though that’s only anecdotal from people eating in their restaurants I can’t confirm or deny that.

Men wear traditional clothing usually dark tones suspenders and hats, and married men grow a beard but no moustaches, since that’s associated with the military, women wear dresses in often but not always dark tones and married women wear these traditional milk girl hats, idk the name of that, clothing is Always made at home or bought from other Amish usually made by the women, they have pretty strict gender roles though that depends on community how much these rules are bend/broken/changed.

Here are their numbers

Beachy Amish cars electricity phones without internet cars, 10.000 fertility rate 4,0

New order Amish sometimes electricity rarely car’s you can join them potentially and they’re more open to the world. 15.000 Fertility rate 5.0

Old order Amish rarely electricity, no cars only horse drawn buggy’s. 380.000 fertility rate 7,0

Schwarzentruber, very conservative no Indoor plumbing extremely traditional in every sense of the world, you’re most conservative red neck looks like a wokie compared to them. 25.000 Fertility rate 9-10

In 100 years there (there’s nothing outright prohibiting that growth) could be about 15-25 million Amish with 10m Schwarzentruber and 10m old order.

Another interesting thing is “rumspringa” that means running around, this varies from community but in general this relaxes church rules and they are often allowed to experience many things of our world driving a car, social Media in some extreme cases they haven fuck around litterly, when they do Amish men are very poplar among modern women since they’re usually strong and are interesting, and Amish women are generally popular among modern men since they can get hammered easilyy though this is an extreme example most don’t do that, but it does happen also drug abuse sometimes Happen but as said that’s rare, in most cases it’s pretty tame ans often restricted but still it’s something, and after a few year’s or that they either choose to become baptized into the church and need to Follow the rurels verry strictly, or they don’t and leave for the modern world, sometimes this period is verry restricted as said it depends greatly on the community.

And they’re pacifists, so they don’t fight and all that, that got them in trouble with the us sometimes.

Since they don’t pay for much else they can handle high land prices pretty okay, 10.000$ per acre is manageable for most families.

They don’t want to convert anybody so these don’t go around knocking on doors and that, in their view they must rather set an example and live a good live as the bible teaches them.

Arranged marriages don’t exist that’s a myth, if it happens it’s usually some fringe group doing that, they do date, they socialize in different ways and if a guy likes a girl they do activities together, etc when they decide to get married its for lifey divorce doesn’t happen there.

Inbreeding does happen rarely, but nowadays not they just carry some effects from the bottleneck in the population that happened back then, this comes with negatives and also positives.

They don’t use birth control and their culture generally sees children as a blessing and because of the way they live children are also useful, so they can sustain these large Families, basically like the 180/s in terms of family size even more sometimes.

inbreeding is also generally frowned upon, it’s no acceptable in most cases to marry someone whose up to a second cousin, beyond that it’s okay, obviously some inbreeding took place here and there, like with us (modern world)

They’re 95% genetically German the rest is irish, and insignificant aemixtures too, but these get fewer with every generation because they marry inside of their groups, so any genes that are in the minority get smaller with eve s generation.

And it’s called “Pennsylvania dutch” because the english misspelled the word “deutsch” and called them durch then the term stuck

And they call everyone non Amish “english” because back then were thes lived there were basically only Englishmen and that Name stuck for other people.

Most also practice shunning, basically banning people from their society if they don’t obey by the “Ordnung” this varies in degree of severity, but generally all Amish do it, as so we, just in a different way.

I personally estimate that maybe 10-30 million Amish can live of agralculture, depending on several factors, if halt of them work difference jobs we can have 20-60 Million amish, if more then more, but the population surplus would either need to move into towns and cities and move to different country’s, generally they will be a great source of immigrants for the united States.

Source: Elizabeth town college Amish population pdf data, I forgot the name but you will probably find it

And there a few errors within the map but it’s not to mayor it was because of the documen, I had some issues at first, and then was too lazy to correct it.