The map above reveals a rather uncomfortable truth if you’re a Biden supporter or shows just how close Trump was to re-election if you’re a Trump supporter.
Overall, Biden got 7 million more votes than Trump in 2020 (81,283,501 vs 74,223,975). The most of any President in history.
This translated into an electoral college victory of 306 for Biden vs Trump’s 232.
However, if Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin had gone to Trump, there would have been a tie in the electoral college, 269 vs 269.
This would very likely have resulted in Trump being re-elected due to a quirk of the electoral college if no candidate can reach the required 270 votes to win.
Basically it comes down to the state delegations and Trump would have had more state delegations on his side, so likely would have won (assuming no faithless electors during the electoral college).
So how close were the races in those 3 states? In one word: Very!
Biden won:
- Arizona by 10,457 votes
- Georgia by 11,779 votes
- Wisconsin by 20,682 votes
Only 42,918 votes separated Biden and Trump in these 3 key states.
Or put another way if 21,459 had switched their vote the election would have gone the other way.
And so finally we get back to the map above. If we remove just 1 county from each state, Trump would have won.
First up Apache county, Arizona. Total population 66,021 of whom 23,293 voted for Biden and 11,442 voted for Trump for a winning margin of 11,851.
Second, Dougherty county, Georgia. Population 85,790 of whom 24,568 voted for Biden and 10,441 voted for Trump for a winning margin of 14,127.
Finally, Dane county Wisconsin. This is by far the most populous with a population of 561,504 with 260,121 cast for Biden and 78,794 cast for Trump for a margin of victory of 181,327.
In the case of Wisconsin you could actually tally up a few smaller counties (e.g. Rock, La Crosse & Douglas) with a smaller combined population of 328,766 people and who gave a combined winning margin of just 20,977 votes.
If I were a Trump supporter this would make me very hopeful he can win again and if I were a Biden supporter I’d be very worried that would happened in 2016 could happen again in 2024.
For more on a county level look at the election have a look at: 2020 US Presidential Election Map By County & Vote Share.
Gus says
Knackered analysis and syntax