The two maps above show the estimated population of various European countries in 2100 if they adopt a policy of non-immigration starting this year and conversely what their population will be in 2100 if they keep their current immigration rates.
Looking at the UK its sort of wild that we would overtake Germany to become the most populous country in Europe.
Here is the data by country:
| Country | Current Population | With No Immigration | With Current Immigration Levels |
|---|---|---|---|
| European Union - 27 countries (from 2020) | 453,168,040 | 294,909,040 | 419,461,737 |
| Euro area – 20 countries (from 2023) | 351,746,735 | 223,892,896 | 331,160,059 |
| Belgium | 11,829,411 | 8,457,767 | 12,556,067 |
| Bulgaria | 6,860,349 | 4,262,643 | 5,072,147 |
| Czechia | 11,017,341 | 8,171,765 | 10,645,693 |
| Denmark | 5,979,924 | 4,747,209 | 6,126,086 |
| Germany | 85,207,514 | 53,047,168 | 84,117,337 |
| Estonia | 1,377,519 | 994,410 | 1,289,504 |
| Ireland | 5,257,383 | 4,442,815 | 5,871,387 |
| Greece | 10,320,364 | 5,764,356 | 7,282,525 |
| Spain | 48,614,060 | 24,270,667 | 45,121,447 |
| France | 68,658,223 | 59,390,584 | 68,042,806 |
| Croatia | 3,810,628 | 2,279,209 | 2,822,689 |
| Italy | 58,951,070 | 28,240,345 | 50,194,524 |
| Cyprus | 941,765 | 636,130 | 1,007,739 |
| Latvia | 1,863,089 | 1,246,021 | 1,165,838 |
| Lithuania | 2,860,472 | 1,762,310 | 1,775,674 |
| Luxembourg | 687,081 | 450,773 | 997,267 |
| Hungary | 9,644,847 | 6,611,713 | 9,054,057 |
| Malta | 553,623 | 278,105 | 759,097 |
| Netherlands | 18,048,588 | 12,742,981 | 18,310,405 |
| Austria | 9,111,243 | 5,576,475 | 9,576,626 |
| Poland | 38,381,332 | 24,074,659 | 29,516,003 |
| Portugal | 10,372,141 | 5,732,123 | 8,981,056 |
| Romania | 18,831,698 | 14,332,575 | 14,609,506 |
| Slovenia | 2,120,770 | 1,371,730 | 1,950,820 |
| Slovakia | 5,521,368 | 3,764,276 | 4,552,382 |
| Finland | 5,640,423 | 3,444,651 | 4,784,869 |
| Sweden | 10,705,814 | 8,815,580 | 13,278,186 |
| Iceland | 402,007 | 348,469 | 624,532 |
| Norway | 5,508,635 | 3,906,602 | 6,731,629 |
| Switzerland | 8,923,538 | 5,737,246 | 10,104,311 |
| UK | 68,000,000 | 48,000,000 | 86,000,000 |
The data for all countries except the UK comes from Eurostat. The data for the UK comes from Office of National Statistics via the Guardian.
What do you think?
François Rose says
None of the maps give the actual population of these countries, only the data do. Hence, there is a high bias hazard for people who don’t read the data, or who have no clue about the actual population of these countries, to think that current immigration rates would lead to a strong increase in population, although the figures say the opposite.