The map above shows what the 2020 US Presidential Election results would have been if votes not cast for Biden, Trump or one of the third party candidates had gone to fictional “Did Not Vote” candidate.
Disclaimer: This map is based on data up to November 11th, 2020. Votes are still being counted so totals are likely to change.
Unlike in 2016, when “Did Not Vote” would have won a landslide 471 electoral college votes, in 2020 it would have only eked out a slim victory with 278. (270 are required to win)
This due to much higher voter turnout. In 2020 voter turnout was 65.1%, the highest in a century and huge increase from 2016 when it was just 55.7%.
This means that Trump actually ended up getting millions more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016: 72.39 million vs 62.98 million (at last count).
However, the Democrats increased their vote share even more going from 65.85 million in 2016 to over 77.65 million in 2020.
Therefore, in 2016 Clinton would have got 51 electoral college votes where she did better than both Trump and non-voters, and Trump would have only managed to get 16.
In 2020, Biden would have tripled Clinton’s record with 162 votes and Trump would have increased his by 6 times going up to 98 votes.
Interestingly, in 2016 neither Trump (46.1%) nor Clinton (48.2%) won a majority of votes cast because of existence of third party candidates. In 2020, Biden won a majority (50.8%) of votes cast, but Trump also improved his share of the vote to 47.4%.
The data comes from United States Elections Project and the NYT 2020 election scraper.
George Soros says
Haha, Trump still loses biggly.
Dennis Rohatyn says
True, but that misses the point. The last time that “did not vote” lost an
American presidential election was in 1904, when Teddy Roosevelt was
elected (William McKinley beat DNV, in 1900, before being assassinated
while in office). Only twice since then (1908, when Taft won, and 1964,
when LBJ did) has the winner even come close. Since neither women
nor (for the most part) African-Americans enjoyed the right to vote in
1904, we are compelled to agree with Rousseau that democracy exists
at most once every four years, and that “civic religion” cannot compete
with apathy–let alone, with bigotry, stupidity, or worship of Mammon.
S. says
The results for Nebraska and Maine are not correct
Dennis Rohatyn says
True, but they cancel each other out, leaving Trump with 5 EV, Biden with 4,
thus agreeing with the map as a whole. There is no comfort for the wicked.
somnomania says
i gotta admit, i don’t fully understand how this one works. is it that “did not vote” was the popular vote and therefore translated to the electoral college votes going that way? either way i’m extremely disappointed, this is why we need mandatory voting in this godforsaken country.
SIXSIGMA^^^ says
I think we should go the other way with make it more difficult to vote. Too many moron-sheeple voting….
Dennis Rohatyn says
I understand your indignation, but “mandatory voting” would backfire overnight.
Voting is a right, not a duty. Making it a duty begets the very tyranny we wish to
prevent. It is both cause and consequence of totalitarian rule, thus emptying the
very notion of an election of all meaning. You cannot command, either love or
respect for a free society, any more than for an individual. If you do, you will only
instill fear and hatred, while reaping the whirlwind. Beware of getting what you
enforced, be it the republic of virtue or the sorcery of yon apprentice dictatorship.
Geo says
Mandatory voting? Sorry I don’t want idiots forced into voting booths picking people at random.
Dennis Rohatyn says
Your electoral maps are enlightening and amusing, yet they miss their own point.
The last time that “did not vote” lost a U.S. election was in 1904, when Theodore
Roosevelt defeated Alton B. Parker (1964 was close; so was 1908, a decade before
Prohibition). Likewise, William McKinley beat “did not vote” (as he bested his
actual opponent, William Jennings Bryan) in 1900, before being assassinated while in
office. But you have to go back that far–well prior to WW I, female suffrage, and the
race riots of 1919–to find participatory democracy at the polls, albeit among just one
enfranchised group (white males). The Framers foresaw this eventuality, which is
one reason why they created the Electoral College, as part of the checks and balances
system. (They also feared what Madison called factions [lobbyists, special interests],
along with the prospect of “mob rule,” which is what the word ‘democracy’ means, in
Greek). What they did not foresee was Andrew Jackson, who substituted patronage
for principle, cronyism for competence, and “Indian removal” for noblesse oblige.
Add the Industrial Revolution (which Franklin welcomed, but Jefferson loathed)
and the rise of large cities (which delighted the one, but disgusted the other),
and you have all the ingredients necessary for apathy, bigotry, and stupidity–
the unholy trinity of exceptional infamy. As Rousseau observed when self-
government was new, the theory is beautiful, but the practice of it occurs
at most once every four years, and as sacred rituals go, is neither moving
nor effective. As Churchill ruefully noted, it is the worst system, except
for all the others that have been tried. In America, we have long since
given up on it, while paying lip service to its exceedingly modest virtues.
It is still the lesser of our political evils. The greater ones are all over the
map, but with courage, determination, and a measure of judicial luck,
their beastly number will soon be up. How brilliant can anyone get?
Dennis Rohatyn says
HOW BRILLIANT CAN YOU GET? (revised)
Your electoral maps are enlightening and amusing, yet they miss their own point.
The last time that “did not vote” lost a U.S. election was in 1904, when Theodore
Roosevelt defeated Alton B. Parker (1964 was close; so was 1908, a decade before
Prohibition). Likewise, William McKinley beat “did not vote” (as he bested his
actual opponent, William Jennings Bryan) in 1900, before being assassinated while in
office. But you have to go back that far–well prior to WW I, female suffrage, and the
race riots of 1919–to find participatory democracy at the polls, albeit among just one
enfranchised group (white males). The Framers foresaw this eventuality, which is
one reason why they created the Electoral College, as part of the checks and balances
system. (They also feared what Madison called factions [lobbyists, special interests],
along with the prospect of “mob rule,” which is what the word ‘democracy’ means, in
Greek). What they did not foresee was Andrew Jackson, who substituted patronage
for principle, cronyism for competence, and “Indian removal” for noblesse oblige.
Add the Industrial Revolution (which Franklin welcomed, but Jefferson loathed)
and the rise of large cities (which delighted the one, but disgusted the other),
and you have all the ingredients necessary for apathy, bigotry, and stupidity–
the unholy trinity of exceptional infamy. As Rousseau observed when self-
government was new, the theory is beautiful, but the practice of it occurs
at most once every four years, and as sacred rituals go, is neither moving
nor effective. As Churchill ruefully noted, it is the worst system, except
for all the others that have been tried. In America, we have long since
given up on it, while paying lip service to its exceedingly modest virtues.
It is still the lesser of our political evils. The greater ones are all over the
map, but with the dictator’s apprentice throttled and his sorcery revealed,
their beastly number will soon be up. How brilliant can autonomy get?