The Rapidly Declining Fertility Rate Of India (2001 vs 2021)

Map found on redditThe two maps of India comparing the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) across different states between the years 2001 (left map) and 2021 (right map).

The TFR represents the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime, a key indicator of population growth.

In terms of numbers, India had 1.079 billion people in 2001 with a TFR of 3.3 giving it an annual growth rate of 1.8%.

By 2021, India’s growth rate had fallen to just 0.8% with a TFR of just 2.03 (slightly below replacement level) but it’s population had risen to 1.408 billion, adding an almost US number of people in 20 years.

Key Observations:

1. Color Legend (Right Map):
   • Dark Blue (1.1 – 1.5): Below replacement level fertility (extremely low).
   • Green (1.6 – 2.0): Below replacement level fertility (low).
   • Yellow (2.1 – 2.5): Replacement level fertility (the level at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next).
   • Orange (2.6 – 3.0): Moderate fertility.
   • Dark Orange (3.1 – 3.5): High fertility.
   • Red (3.6 – 4.0): Very high fertility.
   • Dark Red (4.1 – 4.5): Extremely high fertility.
2. 2001 Map:
   • High Fertility Regions: In 2001, states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan had very high TFRs (above 4.1), indicating significant population growth.
   • Moderate Fertility: Southern and some western states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh already had low fertility rates, below or near replacement level (around 2.1 or lower).
   • North-East and Eastern States: Fertility rates ranged from moderate to high, with most states above the replacement level.
3. 2021 Map:
   • Drastic Decline: By 2021, most states have moved into the blue and light green zones, indicating that the majority of India is now below replacement-level fertility (2.1 or lower).
   • Outliers: Only Bihar (TFR of 3.0), Uttar Pradesh (2.4), and a few northeastern states still have fertility rates slightly above the replacement level.
   • Southern and Western Success: States like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka have seen sustained low fertility rates (well below replacement level), now in the 1.3 to 1.8 range.

Overall Analysis:

India has just become the world’s most populous, but  the map highlights India’s demographic transition over two decades. In 2001, the country was still experiencing high fertility, particularly in northern and central states, contributing to rapid population growth.

By 2021, fertility rates have significantly declined across almost all states, indicating that India is moving toward population stabilization.

This change reflects broader socio-economic developments like improved access to education, healthcare, and family planning services. The shift from red/orange to blue/green across the country signifies the success of these interventions.